A heightened risk of open conflict has our NATO allies investing heavily in deterrence.
“Nothing focuses the mind like the sight of the gallows,” the British poet Samuel Johnson observed.
With Russia’s war on Ukraine now bleeding into other parts of Europe, America’s European allies are focused on defending their territory and trying to deter their reckless, aggressive neighbor.
Russia How reckless and aggressive has Russia become? Here’s an abridged tally of recent Russian aggression: Moscow has launched attack-drones into Poland (a NATO ally); warned Poland that its eastern territories were “a gift from Stalin”; violated the airspace of NATO allies Denmark, Estonia and Romania; moved nuclear weapons into Belarus (which borders four NATO allies); dismembered NATO aspirants Ukraine and Georgia; launched a campaign of sabotage operations targeting transportation systems, military bases, critical infrastructure and defense industries across NATO’s footprint; fired off intermediate-range missiles; used banned chemical weapons in Ukraine; conducted cyberattacks against the critical infrastructure of NATO allies; and in 2025 diverted 35% of government spending into the military.
As a result of Moscow’s supersized spending, the Russian military is larger today than it was before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine – despite the enormous losses it has sustained there.
For those who might dismiss all of that as Europe’s problem, consider this: Putin’s Russia has targeted U.S. assets in those same sabotage operations, provided China with expertise and capabilities to assist in seizing Taiwan, aided and funded attacks against U.S. forces in Afghanistan, provided targeting data to support Houthi attacks against U.S and allied ships, violated the CFE Treaty and INF Treaty (key pillars in America’s post-Cold War security), and shared advanced weapons with Iran and North Korea.
As NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte concludes, “Danger is moving towards us at full speed” – all of us fortunate enough to live under the NATO umbrella.
Poland Aside from Ukraine, no European country knows the danger represented by Russia better than Poland.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently said his country is at its closest to open conflict since World War II – hardly an overstatement given the above litany of Russian aggression.
If that conflict comes, Poland will be ready.
Poland is building massive defensive fortifications along its eastern border – an initiative known as “East Shield” – to give Putin pause. But Warsaw knows that static defenses aren’t enough to deter, let alone defeat, an enemy like Putin’s Russia. So, Poland is building up its army. Poland will soon have 500,000 men under arms, has ordered military training for all Polish men and plans to provide military training to 100,000 volunteers annually by 2027. These volunteers are a “de facto … army of reservists” and are “apart from the professional army and beyond the Territorial Defense Force,” according to Tusk.
Pouring more than 4.4% of GDP into defense – and building toward 5% of GDP – Poland fields more than a thousand top-of-the-line tanks from the United States and South Korea, thousands of tank-killing Hellfire missiles, howitzers and rocket artillery systems, dozens of F-35 stealth fighter-bombers and F-16 fighter-bombers, squadrons of AH-64 attack helicopters (which were purpose-built to hunt and kill Red Army tanks), a squadron of Reaper ground-attack drones, and an array of air- and missile-defense systems.
Baltics Poland and the Baltic states are collaborating to build an electrical-grid defense against drones.
As with Poland, Lithuania (4%), Latvia (3.73%) and Estonia (3.38%) invest far more than what NATO expects its members to invest in defense.
Similar to Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are collaborating to construct the Baltic Defense Line, which aims to fortify their border with Russia, give Moscow pause before attempting in the Baltics what it has done to Ukraine, and – if that fails – buy time for the NATO cavalry to come to the defense of the Balts.
Like Poland, the Baltic states are turning their civilian populations into backstop armies of citizen-soldiers through programs such as the Estonian Defense League, the Riflemen’s Union and Komendanturos in Lithuania, and the National Defense Service in Latvia.
Latvia is training civilians in camouflage concealment, defensive shooting and military terminology. Lithuania is training children to build and operate drones.
Germany The German government has almost doubled defense spending since 2022. The German government this year created a $500 billion rearmament fund and approved a spending plan that paves the way for Germany to invest $1 trillion into defense-related infrastructure over the coming decade.
Germany has quadrupled 155mm artillery-shell production since 2022 and is planning a significant expansion of combat-troop end strength over the next decade.
Germany, Poland and Netherlands are teaming up to fortify military corridors to enable allied troops and equipment to move rapidly from Polish, German and Dutch ports to NATO’s eastern flank. And Germany is doing its part to defend that flank: The German army leads NATO’s battlegroup in Lithuania and is building a permanent base there to house a 5,000-strong brigade of German soldiers.
Germany also is spearheading the Sky Shield Initiative – an integrated air-defense effort enfolding 21 European allies. In addition, Berlin has okayed deployment of U.S. hypersonic weapons, Tomahawk land-attack missiles (TLAMs) and SM-6 missile systems on German territory – all in response to Putin’s recent missile deployments. However, Berlin is poised to go one step further – and acquire its own arsenal of missiles: German defense officials this summer expressed interest in purchasing the Typhon missile system from the United States. The Typhon is designed to launch SM-6 missiles and TLAMs, which, from German territory, would bring Russia within range.
Britain With an eye on Russia, Britain is manufacturing 7,000 long-range missiles and mass-producing interceptor-drones. With two new aircraft carriers already in service, Britain is building 28 warships, including 12 attack submarines. Underscoring their recognition of the long-term threat represented by a neo-imperialist Russia, the British aren’t just building weapons systems; they’re building weapons factories. Six ammunition factories and a factory for howitzers are under construction in Britain.
British industry is building warships for Norway. Britain leads NATO’s battlegroup in Estonia. The British army has stepped up to lead the Multinational Force Ukraine, which will be headquartered in Kyiv. And most dramatically of all, in response to puzzling signals from the United States, Britain and France announced earlier this year that they would collaborate in extending their nuclear deterrent to the whole of Europe.
France President Emmanuel Macron of France says his country is shifting to “a wartime economy.” He’s backing up those words with action: French commandoes in October boarded a Russian-manned oil tanker suspected of launching drones into Denmark.
In addition to offering continent-wide security under the Anglo-French nuclear umbrella, France is increasing defense spending 40% by 2030. France is spearheading a cruise-missile production effort with Germany, Italy and Poland. And France is an active part of operations defending Eastern Europe – leading NATO’s battlegroup in Romania, contributing to air-defense operations in Poland, and steering efforts to organize a peacekeeping force for postwar Ukraine.
Most ominously, the French government has issued a directive to its health-care system to be prepared for surges of between 10,000 and 50,000 wounded troops by March 2026.
Finland and Sweden Finland hosts NATO’s brand-new Land Component Command North. Sweden is leading a forward combat brigade based in Finland. Swedish and German firms have begun jointly producing artillery shells. To enhance security along its long border with Russia, Finland has withdrawn from the treaty that bans the use of anti-personnel landmines. “We have as our neighboring country an aggressive, imperialist state called Russia.” Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in defending the parliament’s move.
NATO The response to Russia’s drone barrage in September underscores that NATO’s European members aren’t just willing to defend NATO territory -- they’re actually doing it on a daily basis.
When waves of Russian drones – 19 in all – poured into Poland, the NATO response included Dutch F-35s, German Patriot air-defense systems, an Italian AWACS plane, a NATO mid-air refueling tanker, and Polish F-16s and AH-64s.
The alliance then launched Operation Eastern Sentry, which includes ground-based defenses and aircraft from France, Germany, Denmark, Czech Republic, Netherlands and Britain. Eastern Sentry aims to “strengthen our posture to shield and protect the alliance” according U.S. Air Force Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, who serves as NATO military commander and U.S. EUCOM commander.
Eastern Sentry is modeled on NATO’s Baltic Sentry – an effort launched in early 2025 to deter, detect and interdict Russian (and Chinese) attacks against undersea cables in the Baltic Sea. In the wake of Russia’s rash of recklessness, several allies are sending additional assets to bolster Baltic Sentry.
Whether spurred by Moscow’s actions or Washington’s criticisms – probably a little of both – the allies are investing heavily in deterrence. NATO’s European members invested 28% more on military equipment in 2024 than they did in 2023. Nineteen of NATO’s European members registered double-digit-percentage increases in defense spending in 2025. Five NATO allies invest a higher percentage of their GDP in defense than the United States.
The payoff: NATO’s rapid-response force has grown from 40,000 troops to more than 300,000. Of NATO’s eight forward-deployed battlegroups in Eastern Europe, only one is led by the United States. The rest are led by European or Canadian allies. All 32 NATO members have reached the alliance-wide standard of investing at least 2% of GDP in defense. And this past summer, all 32 NATO members agreed to invest 5% of GDP into defense-related programs.
EU Soon after Russia’s drone attacks into Poland, there were drone incursions into Romanian and Danish airspace – with mountains of evidence pointing to Russia as the culprit.
The trio of Russian drone incidents spurred European Union into action.
The EU launched Eastern Flank Watch – a defense initiative that includes the Drone Wall program, which will provide “detection, tracking and interception capabilities”; the Air Defense Shield initiative, which is an EU-wide effort aimed at strengthening air and missile defenses; the Defense Space Shield, which will beef up EU space-awareness capabilities; and a maritime-security element focused on detection and defense capabilities in the Baltic and Black Seas.
Understandably, the counter-drone effort is a top priority. Bulgaria, Denmark, Romania, Slovakia, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are collaborating to build the Drone Wall. Britain, Sweden, Norway, Netherlands rushed counter-drone systems and units to Denmark. And France sent helicopters equipped with electronic-jamming equipment.
Plus, the EU has created a $175 billion defense-procurement fund to help its members build up their militaries.
Common Washington has wanted the Europeans to contribute more to the common defense since the Eisenhower administration. NATO’s European members are finally doing that.
Now is not the time to turn away from Europe. Instead, it’s time to encourage Europe to keep building up its military muscle and to reassure Europe of America’s commitment to defend every inch of NATO territory – all with the goal of advancing our common interest of deterring Russia.
- Landing Zone