The United States and its allies are working together to defend their interests and deter aggression in the region.
As it becomes more accessible – and as global demand for its many resources increases – the Arctic is rapidly transforming into a theater of strategic competition. The best way – perhaps the only way – to prevent the Arctic from devolving into a theater of conflict is for the United States and its Arctic allies to apply the time-tested principles of deterrence to what NATO calls “the High North.”
Threats With a fleet of nearly 60 icebreakers and a growing network of military installations across its Arctic frontier, Russia views the Arctic not merely as a domain of exploration but as an extension of its own territory. For example, Russia has planted its flag on the seabed under the North Pole, laid claim to 70% of the Arctic Ocean based on a dubious interpretation of an underwater ridge linking to the Russian landmass, and threatened to unilaterally redraw the territorial waters of the Baltic Sea.
Moscow’s reactivation of Cold War-era bases and deployment of air-defense systems in the Arctic reflect its broader ambition to defend those claims and seize those territories. Simply put, Putin has not refurbished, reopened and built some 20 military bases in the Arctic to promote goodwill, ensure freedom of navigation or encourage free trade. Rather, he wants to dominate the Northern Sea Route, control access to the Arctic’s resources and posture his military to continue his piecemeal reconstruction of the Russian Empire. Allied military officials, by way of example, worry that Russia could mount a Crimea-style operation to seize Sweden’s Gotland Island or one of Norway’s Svalbard islands.
Russia’s newest class of icebreakers provides a not-so-subtle signal about its Arctic intentions: The ships are purpose-built to carry containerized missile systems.
This isn’t solely a “European problem,” as some Americans might argue. The United States is an Arctic nation, with territory and interests in the region. In addition to their violations of and threats to Finnish airspace, Swedish airspace and Norwegian airspace, Russian aircraft – including long-range bombers – have repeatedly flown into Alaska’s air defense identification zone. A U.S. Navy destroyer was deployed in August to shadow a China-Russia flotilla operating near Alaskan waters.
China has declared itself a “near-Arctic state” – a made-up term that should concern the United States and its Arctic allies. In the Arctic, as in parts of the United States, South America, Central Asia, coastal Africa and ports around the world, Beijing is seeking economic footholds that can be leveraged into strategic advantage. Beijing’s investments in Arctic infrastructure include cargo ships, icebreakers, drilling rigs and research stations (at least one of which is tied to the People’s Liberation Army).
Again, this isn’t “someone else’s problem.” China has flown bombers and sailed ships through the Arctic, including bomber sorties this year near Alaska. In August, five PRC icebreakers sailed through the waters north of Alaska in what maritime observes described as an “unprecedented” surge of China’s Arctic capability. In September, the U.S. Coast Guard’s Arctic District dispatched a cutter and fixed-wing aircraft in response to a pair of Chinese ships loitering off northern Alaska.
In addition, China and Russia are increasing joint operations and exercises in, through and around the Arctic. Moreover, Chinese and Russian civilian vessels have intentionally severed undersea communications cables in the Baltic Sea.
Answers The United States and its Arctic allies – Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Iceland – are awake to the danger and serious about Arctic security. Importantly, all seven of these nations are NATO members, which helps them coordinate and harmonize how they answer provocations in the Arctic.
In 2022, Jens Stoltenberg, at the time NATO’s top civilian official, declared, “NATO is an Arctic alliance.” The alliance also made clear that Russia’s capabilities and actions in the High North represent a “strategic challenge to the alliance.” On the plus side, NATO noted in 2024 that the accession of Sweden and Finland into the alliance has strengthened NATO’s position and capabilities in the High North.
NATO has a Cold Weather Operations Center hosted and led by Norway’s military. As The Wall Street Journal reports, military units from Norway and other Nordic nations are training NATO military units, including U.S. Marines, how to camp, conceal, survive and fight in the Arctic’s brutal conditions.
NATO is mulling whether to stand up an Arctic combined air operations center to coordinate allied responses to Russia’s airspace intrusions and provocations.
In January, NATO launched Baltic Sentry – an effort to deter, detect, and interdict Russian and Chinese attacks against undersea cables in the Baltic Sea. In August, a NATO taskforce of Dutch, Norwegian, Portuguese and German warships surged into Arctic waters to ensure freedom of navigation and protect undersea communications cables.
That’s just the tip of the iceberg. What might be called “NATO’s arctic seven” are working together and individually to defend their interests and deter aggression in the Arctic.
In May, the Coast Guard received the go-ahead for construction of the first U.S.-built polar icebreaker in five decades. In addition, Congress has approved $8.6 billion in fresh funding for several more icebreakers and Arctic-capable Coast Guard cutters.
This past summer, the Pentagon combined its Northern Edge and Arctic Edge exercises for the first time ever. The twin exercises, spanning all of Alaska’s vast territory, featured 6,400 troops, seven warships, and 100 aircraft from Canada and the United States. Here’s an interesting caveat about Alaska-based military aircraft: In 2021, Alaska became home to the world’s largest concentration of fifth-generation warplanes (e.g., F-22s and F-35s).
In 2024, in response to Russia’s and China’s increasingly provocative actions, the Army deployed two HIMARS batteries and 130 soldiers to Alaska’s Shemya Island – the Pacific Ocean’s gateway to the Arctic.
In 2022, the Army reactivated the 11th Airborne Division in Alaska. Its soldiers operate the Northern Warfare Training Center. (The Army's presence in Alaska includes some 12,000 soldiers.)
In a similar vein, the Pentagon is considering reopening a shuttered Navy facility on Alaska’s Adak Island. The former Adak Naval Air Station includes three piers, two 8,000-ft runways, an aircraft hangar and massive fuel-storage capacity.
Canada is investing billions into Arctic security: an over-the-horizon radar system for the country’s northern approaches, expansion of military training and presence in the Arctic, acquisition of support ships and aircraft, deployment of underwater surveillance systems, and domestic ammunition production. Canada is increasing defense spending by 87% between 2022 and the end of this year.
In June, Finland announced the formation of NATO Forward Land Forces – a multinational unit based inside the Arctic Circle enfolding thousands of troops from Finland, Sweden, Britain, France, Norway, Denmark and Iceland. Further south, Finland is standing up NATO’s new Multi Corps Land Component Command, a permanent command focused on enhancing NATO’s land-based deterrence efforts in Arctic Europe.
In addition, Finland – which has increased defense spending by 75% since 2022 – is helping expand the icebreaker fleets of the United States and Canada. “We build them faster than anyone in the world and at about half the price,” Finnish President Alexander Stubb boasts. That explains why the United States, Canada and Finland recently joined together in the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort dubbed “ICE Pact.”
Denmark’s Joint Arctic Command helps defend Denmark’s Arctic territories, including Greenland. In September, the Joint Arctic Command led Exercise Arctic Light 25, which featured ships, fighter-jets, refueling aircraft, transport helicopters, drones and mountain-infantry units from NATO allies France, Germany, Sweden and Norway. Denmark set aside resources this year for three new Arctic naval vessels, long-range drones, ground-based sensors and additional Arctic military training. The Danes have increased defense spending 155% since 2022.
Norway earlier this year seized a Russian ship suspected of destroying undersea cables. Norway is acquiring a fleet of P-8A maritime reconnaissance planes, developing a long-endurance drone designed for Arctic operations and has increased defense spending by 113% since 2022.
Investing 88% more on defense today than it did in 2022, Sweden is engaged in its largest military buildup since the Cold War, according to Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. Sweden’s elite commando units are conducting enhanced Arctic training. Sweden also is hosting U.S. Marines on Gotland to test rocket systems, conduct joint training, accelerate the Swedish military’s integration into NATO and send a strong signal to Russia.
Together Russia and China are testing NATO and looking for vulnerabilities in the Arctic. If – when – they find one, they will exploit it.
What Churchill said of the Soviets at the beginning of Cold War I holds true in these early chapters of Cold War II: “There is nothing they admire so much as strength, and there is nothing for which they have less respect than for weakness, especially military weakness. For that reason, the old doctrine of a balance of power is unsound. We cannot afford, if we can help it, to work on narrow margins, offering temptations to a trial of strength.”
There is strength in numbers, especially in the Arctic. NATO’s Arctic seven must continue working together, training together, building together and sticking together.
- Landing Zone