Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the nation has stepped up as a leader on military and diplomatic fronts.
Lord Hastings Ismay, NATO’s first secretary general, famously said NATO’s mission is “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down.”
Seventy-five years later, two-thirds of Ismay’s formula remains unchanged: NATO still seeks to keep the Russians out of alliance territory and still seeks to keep the Americans in the alliance. But one part is different: Today’s NATO wants – and needs – Germany to step up.
Changes During his tour as U.S. ambassador to Germany, Dan Coats observed, “Many people fear their weaknesses. Germans seem to be afraid of their strengths. A self-confident German identity, coupled with modesty and without denying the past, can be constructive and appreciated by the world.”
Coats shared that insight in 2005. He was right, but the irony is that by 2005, Germany had retreated from the constructive role it played in bolstering NATO and deterring Moscow during much of the Cold War.
At the height of the Cold War, West Germany deployed 2,125 tanks and more than 500,000 troops. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, Germany’s muscular military capabilities dramatically atrophied. By 2014, Germany had fewer than 300 tanks and less than 178,000 troops. The German military was so badly underequipped that German troops used black-painted broomsticks to simulate machine guns during a 2014 NATO exercise. And it was so strategically stunted – and morally confused – that German soldiers were required to shout warnings in three languages before engaging Taliban terrorists in Afghanistan.
Equally troubling, German leaders shrugged at Vladimir Putin’s behavior, blocked NATO efforts to deter Putin, partnered with Putin on development projects and even defended Putin.
That all changed Feb. 24, 2022. When Putin attempted to conquer Ukraine, Germany began to re-embrace its strengths and return to its central role in transatlantic security.
Shocked by Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Germany shocked Putin by rushing antitank weapons and surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine. Germany then canceled a pipeline construction deal with Russia, announced a nearly doubling of defense spending to 2% of GDP (something Washington had been begging Berlin to do since 2006) and created a $112.7 billion rearmament fund.
“The world,” then-German Chancellor Olaf Scholz concluded, “will no longer be the same as the world before.”
Nor would Germany.
Germany’s new governing coalition, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is even more committed to helping Ukraine, strengthening NATO and deterring Putin.
Ukraine receives 65% of Germany’s arms exports. Germany has delivered $15.6 billion in military equipment to Ukraine, including hundreds of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers; scores of howitzers, multiple-launch rocket systems and air-defense systems; more than a million rounds of heavy ammunition; and thousands of anti-tank systems.
Germany recently began shipping Ukraine the first batch of 10,000 radar-evading attack drones. German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall is building four factories inside Ukraine (one is already operational). And Berlin has signed a security agreement with Ukraine pledging long-term support in intelligence, air defense, artillery, armor and ammunition (which Germany is producing in enormous numbers). Germany has quadrupled 155mm artillery-shell production since 2022 and will produce 1.1 million 155mm rounds annually by 2027.
NATO As to strengthening NATO and deterring Putin, German lawmakers this year approved a spending plan paving the way for Germany to invest $1 trillion into defense-related infrastructure over the coming decade.
Merz calls the new fund “a clear message to our partners … but also to the enemies of our freedom: We are capable of defending ourselves.” He vows that his government will “provide all the financing the Bundeswehr needs to become the strongest conventional army in Europe.”
Toward that end, Germany is expanding the size of the Bundeswehr to 203,000 troops. German defense officials are prepared to reinstate the draft to reach those troop levels.
Unlike in Lord Ismay’s time, when memories of Nazi aggression pervaded allied thinking, Merz points out that “our friends and partners expect this of us.” Indeed, NATO has asked Germany to generate seven more brigades (about 40,000 troops) to enhance the deterrent capabilities of the alliance. Germany, Merz declares, is ready “to assume more responsibility within NATO.”
Already, Germany leads NATO’s battlegroup in Lithuania and is building a permanent base in Lithuania – Germany’s first base abroad since World War II – for more than 4,800 German combat troops.
German fighter-jets are leading NATO’s Air Policing Mission in the skies over Romania.
Germany plays a key role in Baltic Sentry – a NATO effort to deter, detect and interdict Russian and Chinese attacks against undersea cables in the Baltic Sea.
Germany is partnering with NATO allies Poland and the Netherlands to develop military corridors to enable allied troops and equipment to move rapidly from Polish, German and Dutch ports to NATO’s eastern flank.
Germany is spearheading the Sky Shield Initiative, an integrated air-defense effort enfolding 21 European allies.
To deter Putin’s army and answer his missile deployments, the United States and Germany agreed during last summer’s NATO summit to deploy hypersonic weapons, Tomahawk land-attack missiles and SM-6 missile systems on German territory. At this year’s NATO summit, Germany committed to an alliance-wide plan to invest 5% of GDP on defense-related programs.
Germany also is leading on the diplomatic front.
“It is of paramount importance that the political West not let itself be divided,” Merz argues, “so I will continue to make every effort to produce the greatest possible unity between the European and American partners.” Thus, Berlin arranged a summit to ensure that NATO allies were on the same page ahead of Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks, joined Britain and France in threatening to reimpose heavy sanctions on Iran in response to Tehran’s outlaw nuclear program, and coordinated with EU, Israeli and Arab partners the delivery of food aid to Gaza.
Beyond NATO Importantly, the transformation of Germany’s approach to security – what one member of Merz’s bloc in the Bundestag describes as a “paradigm shift” – is not confined to Europe.
In addition to Ukraine, Germany is shipping arms to fellow democracies Poland, India, Greece, Brazil, South Korea, Britain and Israel.
In fact, Germany is Israel’s second-largest arms provider, representing 30% of Israel’s overall military aid. After Hamas’ assault on Israel, Germany rushed 3,000 antitank weapons and 500,000 rounds of ammunition to Israel.
The past two years have seen South Korea and Germany sign an intelligence-sharing agreement, German warplanes train with Japanese warplanes in Japanese airspace and with multiple allied air forces in Australia’s Pitch Black exercises, German warships sail through the Taiwan Strait and other Indo-Pacific waterways, and German soldiers continue ongoing training operations in support of the Iraqi military.
In mid-2024, Germany and Japan signed an agreement enabling their armed forces to share fuel and ammunition. Germany and Japan are planning joint land exercises. And the two longtime U.S. allies are finalizing plans for cooperation on missile technology, manned aircraft and unmanned systems.
Along with Germany’s recommitment to NATO and newfound commitment to the rest of the free world, Merz has conveyed clarity on strategic threats.
For instance, he views the Russian siege of Ukraine as one front of “Putin’s war of aggression against Europe.”
“This terrible war and its outcome will not only determine the fate of Ukraine,” Merz warns. “Its outcome will determine whether law and justice continue to apply in Europe and the world – or whether tyranny, military violence and the naked law of the strongest will prevail.”
Unlike some of his predecessors and some of his NATO counterparts, Merz is under no illusions about Putin’s designs. “Anyone who believes Russia would be content with a victory over Ukraine or parts of Ukraine, or the annexation of parts of the country, is wrong,” he bluntly explains.
Germany also is expressing moral clarity on the world stage.
“There is no reason … to criticize what Israel started a week ago and also no reason to criticize what America did,” Merz said after the United States and Israel targeted Iran’s nuclear sites and missile program. “They are doing something that is also in our interest,” he added, without a hint of equivocation.
“Our common freedom,” Merz concludes, echoing the men who waged and won the Cold War, “does not end at a geopolitical line – it ends where we stop defending it.”
Add it all up, and a strong and free Germany appears poised – yet again – to bolster NATO, to defend our common freedom and to deter our common enemies.
Alan W. Dowd serves as director of the Sagamore Institute Center for America's Purpose. Any opinions expressed in this article are strictly his own.
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