Experts believe Iran would respond more forcefully this time to US military strikes; Kim Jong Un re-elected, expected to call for bolstering nuclear arsenal; Seoul lodges complaint with US Forces Korea following standoff between American, Chinese fighter jets.
1. When Iran retaliated for American strikes on its nuclear sites last year, it launched a relatively modest counterattack, even going so far as to give the U.S. a heads-up before firing missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. But if the once-again simmering tensions between the countries produce another U.S. strike, Tehran has signaled that it’s ready to take the gloves off this time, experts say. “I think now we’re moving towards a world in which the regime is at least publicly signaling … that it will be fighting in a much less constrained manner than before,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Faltering diplomatic talks and a buildup of military assets have the U.S. hurtling toward another potential conflict with Iran, putting the region and American allies on edge. President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to use force if a deal over Iran’s nuclear enrichment program is not made. He said Thursday that he would give Tehran 10 to 15 days to meet U.S. terms.
2. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was reelected to the top post of the ruling Workers’ Party, with delegates crediting him for bolstering the country’s nuclear arsenal and strengthening its regional standing, state media reported Monday. The report from the party congress, a major propaganda spectacle where Kim is expected to outline his political and military goals for the next five years, suggests he will double down on accelerating a nuclear arsenal already equipped with missiles capable of threatening Asian U.S. allies and the American mainland. The party also released a new roster for its powerful Central Committee that confirmed a generational shift in Kim’s leadership circle, with aging military chiefs and the 76-year-old head of Pyongyang’s rubber-stamp parliament among dozens replaced in the 138-member body.
3. South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense has lodged a complaint with U.S. Forces Korea over a brief standoff between American and Chinese fighter jets, according to local media. Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back contacted the USFK commander, Army Gen. Xavier Brunson, after learning of Wednesday’s incident, the Yonhap News Agency reported Saturday. Gen. Jin Yong-sung, chairman of South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, also raised concerns with Brunson, said the report, which cited unnamed military sources. According to Yonhap, about 10 U.S. F-16 Fighting Falcons were training over the Yellow Sea when they entered an area between the air defense identification zones of South Korea and China.
4. U.S. Marines and their Japanese counterparts have kicked off a series of amphibious exercises aimed at strengthening island defense amid increasing regional tensions. Monday’s ceremony on Camp Hansen — attended by 50 Marines and Navy sailors and 50 Japanese soldiers — marked the start of Iron Fist’s live exercise phase, including maritime maneuvers, landing operations and ground combat exercises. The series runs through March 9. This year’s exercise takes place as Japan faces “the most severe security environment” since the end of World War II, Maj. Gen. Toshikatsu Musha, commander of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force’s Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade, told reporters after the ceremony. “We can’t deny the possibility that a situation similar to the Russian invasion of Ukraine could happen anywhere in the world,” he said. “I’m convinced that maintaining such capability will deter aggression, leading to the prevention of war before it happens.”
5. European Union diplomats scrambled Monday to overcome Hungary’s veto threats as they seek to finalize new sanctions on Russia and a massive new loan for Ukraine. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the bloc’s 27 foreign ministers gathering in Brussels would likely not agree on the 20th package of sanctions targeting Russia’s shadow fleet and energy revenues, which it hoped to pass ahead of the fourth anniversary Tuesday of Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine — a war that has left perhaps 1.8 million dead, wounded or missing. “I think there is not going to be progress regarding this today,” Kallas said before a regular meeting of the EU’s foreign ministers in Brussels where discussion of the 20th sanctions package was planned. The meeting came after Hungary threatened to block the EU sanctions plans and to obstruct a 90 billion euro loan for Ukraine until Russian oil deliveries to Hungary resume.
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